The demand for food will increase by about 70% by 2050, according to projections made by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation taking into account the rise in population of developing countries. Animal products are expected to increase even more rapidly, due to changes in food habits. Thus, meat production may double (470 million in 2050 versus 229 million tonnes in the 2000s) and milk production may rise from 580 to 1,043 million tonnes. In parallel, climate change affects food production and food security (more frequent extreme climatic conditions, emerging pathogens and diseases, etc.) Given that the increase in meat production will take place mostly in developing countries (e.g. African countries) and in countries with transition economies (e.g. Brazil), there will be a need to favour strategies in these countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions without causing economic, social, and environmental harm. Livestock production, directly or indirectly, accounts for 37% of methane emissions, 65% of nitrous oxide emissions, and 9% of carbon dioxide emissions. A better understanding of the ways in which public policies affect the links between climate change and livestock is therefore needed.
The AnimalChange project will use climate, economic, energy, and agricultural sector parameters to determine the characteristics of livestock systems in the 21st century. The partners of AnimalChange will develop a series of scenarios, bio-physical models, and socio-economic models that they will link to experiments. They will thereby be able to explore future scenarios for the stock-breeding sector under changes in climate and in atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Various aspects will thus be studied:
- the reduction of uncertainties concerning greenhouse gas emissions by livestock systems, in particular by including data on soil carbon storage
- assessing the impacts of climate change on livestock systems (including grasslands)
- including climate variability as part of impact assessment, as well as taking into account adaptation options
- the development of cutting-edge technologies for adaptation to climate change and for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from ruminants and from mono gastric production systems
- assessing economic and societal costs of business as usual and of adaptation and mitigation scenarios in Europe and in regions of Africa and Latin America
- assessing the vulnerability to climate change of animal production and feedbacks on greenhouse gas emissions
- providing direct support to set up policies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change for the livestock sector.
The partners of AnimalChange will inform public policies on development, and put forward actions for co-operation with smallholders and pastoralists in selected regions of Africa and Brazil.
AnimalChange brings together 25 public and private partners (2) from 12 European countries, Brazil, Kenya, New Zealand, Senegal, South Africa and Tunisia. Its total budget is 12.8 million euros, of which 9 million comes from the European Commission as part of the 7th FPRD for a 4-year period (2011-2015).
INRA contributes to this project through the involvement of 9 of its research units: the Unité de Recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial (UREP – Grassland Eco-System Research Unit) and the Unité de Recherches sur les Herbivores (URH – Herbivore Research Unit), which are based in Clermont-Ferrand; the Unité Mixte de Recherche “Production du Lait” (UMRPL – Milk Production Mixed Research Unit) in Rennes, the Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (P3F – Grassland and Fodder Plant Multi-Disciplinary Research Unit) in Lusignan, the Unité Systèmes d'Élevage, Nutrition Animale et Humaine (SENAH – Stock-Breeding Systems, Animal Nutrition, & Human Nutrition Unit) in Rennes, the Unité Environnement et Grandes Cultures (EGC – Environment and Arable Crops Unit) in Grignon, the Unité de Recherches Zootechniques (URZ – Zoo-Technical Research Unit) in the French West Indies and French Guyana, and the Unité Economie Publique (ECO-PUB – Public Economy Unit) in Grignon.
(1) This plenary conference was held in France from 28 February to 4 March 2011. The aim of the GRA is to contribute to the improvement of agricultural productivity whilst reducing greenhouse-gas emissions.
(2) Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Aarhus University, Irish Agriculture and Food Development Authority, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Aberystwyth University, Stichting Dienst Landbouwkundig Onderzoek, Institute of Botany and Ecophysiology, Szent István University, Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement, Federal Department of Economic Affairs – Agroscope Swiss Federal Research Station, Scottish Agricultural College, Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, INRA Transfert, PROVIMI, FertiPrado, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária, Institut National de Recherches Agronomiques de Tunisie, Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, University of Pretoria, International Livestock Research Institute, AgResearch New Zealand – Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, European Federation of Animal Science, Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, European Commission - DG Joint Research – Institute for Environment and Sustainability.
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