At a time when the FAO estimates that nearly 50% of fish are already supplied by aquaculture, and when world growth in the sector is close to 10% per year in a context of increasing consumer demand for aquatic products, what are the possible scenarios for French fish farming over the next fifteen years? The working group focused on identifying major trends and possible breakdowns in this part of the French agrifood industry. On completion of a foresight study based on a morphological analysis method, the group retained five different scenarios. Alongside those which suggest that French fish farming would remain at the level that has prevailed in recent years, or even decline and disappear, the group has proposed some more optimistic scenarios and identified the conditions necessary for them to be achieved.
Today but better
Environmental questions remain central to the concerns raised by NGOs and other organisations in a context of high domestic demand for aquatic products, linked to reductions in imports. Citizen groups are particularly demanding and active. Under this scenario, fish farmers become actors acknowledged for their efficient management of ecosystems. Its success is based on signs of quality and specific, local branding. Fish farming benefits from local development plans, cultivates regional roots but must take considerable account of scrutiny by society of its practices and production conditions.
Vertical and globalized
In a context favourable to concentration, the industrial dimension of aquaculture increases. Vertical integration becomes the rule. Products from tropical regions take on increasing importance in the market. Major retailers control the sector and impose their own quality charters, including ecolabelling. Production and processing companies in the French fish farming sector need to adapt, intensify their efforts and change in size, either by being taken over or by taking over smaller entities.
In an impasse
Too many combined constraints threaten French fish farming: insurmountable environmental demands, controversy concerning the true benefits of producing fish in France, a negative image for farmed fish amongst consumers and a lack of national political support. These obstacles combine to deprive the sector of any optimistic perspectives for development. French fish farming thus declines.
All hands on deck
A dynamic development strategy for fish farming is drawn up thanks to an alliance between all French actors in the context of proactive policies. National initiatives are supported by Europe in response to a strong demand for aquatic products that cannot be covered by fishing and tropical production. Renewal of the sector is notable; this results in the co-existence of different, viable production systems but its long-term success remains dependent on unfailing agreements between different operatives in the sector.
Doubly novel
Under this scenario for the future of fish farming, consumer demands have changed. New generations exhibit particular attraction for festive and trendy foods. New technologies, particularly in the processing industry, ensure support for the sector and combine with innovations in all types in production systems. Farmed fish is particularly popular. And as well as consumption for food, aquarium fish meet with considerable success. Fish farmers must show themselves to be proactive in response to these major market evolutions.
 These five possible scenarios for the future of French fish farming at the horizon of 2021 are now available to all actors concerned. They are accompanied by descriptors that can monitor changes in the situation. The working group hopes that it will thus contribute to debate on the implementation and promotion of the most favourable scenarios, while at the same time explaining the consequences of each of them.
The working group is also pursing its efforts to identify the challenges arising from each of the scenarios and to define the research which must be developed accordingly.
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* Participants in the working group: INRA, Ifremer, Cirad, CIPA (Interprofessional Committee for Aquaculture Products, or Comité Interprofessionnel des Produits de l'Aquaculture), ITAVI (Technical Institute for Aviculture, or Institut technique de l’aviculture) and representatives from different commercial enterprise.
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