|
||
 |
||
|
||
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
A brief overview | Missions and strategies | Organisation | Scientific expertise | Foresight | Advanced Studies |
|
|
| The goal of this study is to analyse the consequences of various scenarios for the development of French and European agriculture in an international context characterised by uncertainty: economic growth, demand for food and non-food agricultural products, increasing environmental concerns, the future of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the outcome of the Doha round trade negotiations, among other things. According to Marion Guillou, “This study shows that post-2013 French and European agriculture depends on a number of factors with potentially contradictory influences. These include economic growth, development of biofuels, environmental regulations, changes in the CAP, the outcome of Doha round trade negotiations, etc. Based on both quantitative and qualitative analysis, the study sheds light on the respective roles of each of these factors. The challenges facing European policymakers in the future are not just price and income stabilisation but also preservation of the environment and maintenance of businesses in underprivileged areas.” According to René Carron, “We need to be able to anticipate change, evaluate its consequences on our immediate environment and prepare to act or react accordingly. Our entire society – economic, social and environmental players – must share this attitude of responsibility.” Jean-Luc Baucherel adds, “France will have to prepare proposals by 2013, and as early as next year for the CAP “health check”. These proposals must be sufficiently solid and coherent and have garnered enough support so as to be justifiable to Brussels and to build necessary alliances within the European Union (EU). Rather than “subject” ourselves to what the future holds, we must plan for it. To plan for it, we must make difficult and necessary choices based on a shared vision.” A committee of experts first established various development hypotheses for each factor. The committee then identified scenarios combining several hypotheses for each factor’s outcome. The impact of each scenario was analysed using economic simulation models built by INRA and also by specialist panels. Three categories of scenarios were developed. Their consequences were analysed according to a 2015 trends forecast for agriculture in the world, in Europe and in France based on 2005 data. > Scenario I: Sluggish Growth- Hypothesis: Due in part to a tense geopolitical landscape, world economic growth slows and environmental regulations are not developed. The CAP remains unchanged, but the EU expands the use of first generation biofuels. The outcome of the Doha round multilateral negotiations is uncertain. - Result: With sluggish world economic growth and an unchanged CAP, the future of the cereal and oilseed crop industries in the EU depends significantly on EU policy (and its translation into concrete measures in the Member States) in terms of promoting use of first generation biofuels. The future of animal production relies considerably on European border policy, mainly in terms of import tariffs but also in subsidising exports in the case of dairy products. > Scenario II: Average Growth- Hypothesis: World economic growth follows the current trend. More stringent environmental regulations are established. The EU expands the use of first generation biofuels and implements a major reform of the CAP. This reform may retain regulatory tools for herbivore production due to their role in specific areas. The outcome of the Doha round is uncertain. - Result: Following the current trend of economic growth, the elimination of regulatory instruments for EC herbivore production markets (animal premia, dairy quotas, support for sales on the internal market and international markets) has a negative impact on this type of production. This impact is exacerbated in the case of a WTO multilateral agreement. Insofar as the maintenance of these regulatory tools would only partially compensate for the adverse effects of lower tariffs and the elimination of payments implied by the multilateral agreement, it is important to identify effective instruments to support animal production (cattle, sheep). An agro-environmental policy in this case might aim at maintaining extensive livestock farms in underprivileged areas. > Scenario III: Accelerated Growth- Hypothesis: World economic growth is strong, including in the EU. Solvent demand in agricultural products is high, supported by an increase in food use, as well as the development of biofuels. Environmental concerns remain, but are considered secondary given the issue of food supply. The CAP undergoes major reforms and the Doha round concludes with an agreement. - Result: Intensified economic growth has a positive impact on agriculture in the EU and in France. This positive outcome nevertheless varies depending on the production and industry: it is highly positive for cereals and oilseed crops, positive for milk and beef, but only slightly positive for pork, poultry, and sheep and goat farms. At the symposium on 04 October 2007, researchers and other experts who have conducted the foresight study will present their results and conclusions. These will be debated during two round table discussions. Conference venue: Salons de l'Aveyron - 17 rue de l'Aubrac - 75012 Paris - Metro station: Cour Saint-Emilion. Register by email: agriculture2013@paris.inra.fr Press Pack (PDF) in French only:
- Press release- Preliminary results and conclusions broken down by scenario - Goals and methodology - Study organisers - Marion Guillou's presentation - René Carron's presentation - Jean-Luc Baucherel's presentation
|
|
|
|
Head office: 147 rue de l'Université 75338 Paris Cedex 07 FRANCE - tel: +33(0)1 42 75 90 00 | copyright © INRA 2005 | Credits | Legal notice |